France has long held the crown as the world's most visited country, but that title may soon pass to its Iberian neighbour. A new study by Deloitte and Google projects that by 2040, Spain will overtake France, driven by sustained growth in international arrivals and a shift in traveller preferences.
In 2025, France welcomed 102 million international visitors, a national record, according to the country's Economy Ministry. The figure represented 743 million overnight stays, with 76% of holidaymakers coming from other European countries. Spain was close behind, recording 96.8 million foreign tourists—a 3.2% increase from the 94 million it received in 2024.
Europe's share of global travel grows
The joint Deloitte-Google analysis, which tracks tourism trends from 1990 to 2040, predicts that worldwide trips will rise to 2.4 billion by 2040. European nations are expected to capture the largest slice—38%—of that total, translating into more than 362 million additional visitors between 2019 and 2040.
Spain is set to be the biggest beneficiary, with annual arrivals climbing to 110 million by 2040. France is projected to reach 105 million, a slower growth trajectory that reflects its mature market and capacity constraints. The United States and China are expected to remain in the top five, while Italy is forecast to slip to sixth place, with Mexico moving up to fifth. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates could enter the top 15.
The Asia-Pacific region will be the second-largest destination for inbound travel, with over 278 million incremental tourists expected between 2019 and 2040.
Economic gains versus local strain
For Spain, the surge in visitor numbers brings clear economic rewards. Revenue from foreign tourists rose 6.8% last year to €134.7 billion, up from €126 billion in 2024, according to the Ministry of Tourism. Yet the same growth has fuelled widespread discontent in popular destinations, where residents say the industry has become unsustainable.
Protests have erupted periodically across the country, with demonstrators demanding that authorities tackle overtourism. In response, several measures have been introduced. In September, the government announced the removal of some 53,000 tourist flats from the Single Register of Tourist and Seasonal Rentals, converting them into permanent housing. Barcelona has pledged to phase out short-term tourist apartments entirely by 2028, returning thousands of properties to the long-term rental market. The city also reduced daily cruise ship arrivals at its central port from ten to seven in 2023.
Málaga, a summer hotspot known for its lively nightlife, launched a campaign to encourage better behaviour among visitors. A list of ten suggested rules appeared on buses, billboards, and social media, urging tourists to keep noise down, especially at night; avoid shouting or blaring music in residential areas; and use designated bins and toilets. In the Balearic Islands, authorities have imposed stricter controls on alcohol consumption and party boats to curb excessive behaviour.
Despite these efforts, the sheer volume of tourists remains the core issue for many locals. As one protester in the Balearics put it: “We have nothing against individual tourists but the industry is growing and growing and using up so many resources and the island cannot cope.”
The challenge for Spain—and for Europe as a whole—will be to balance the economic benefits of tourism with the need to protect local communities and environments. The study's projections suggest that pressure will only intensify, making sustainable management a priority for policymakers from Madrid to Palma.
