LONDON — UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned on Friday that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member state as soon as 2030, citing intelligence assessments shared among Western allies. The statement came as Starmer pledged to publish a long-delayed defence investment plan before the next NATO summit, scheduled for July in Turkey.
“It is our intelligence assessment and the assessment of other countries in NATO that there could be an attack by Russia on NATO as soon as 2030,” Starmer said during a visit to a drone manufacturer in Swindon, southwest England. “So you can see the urgency and the priority that we're putting behind this now.”
The timeline echoes warnings from other European leaders and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said in December that Russia “could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.” The assessments reflect growing concern across the continent about Moscow's military posture, particularly after more than four years of war in Ukraine.
Defence Spending and Delayed Plan
Starmer has committed to raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP starting next year, with a further increase to 3% in the next parliamentary term. A 10-year defence investment plan, originally expected late last year, has been delayed amid reported disagreements between the Treasury and other departments over costs. Starmer insisted the plan would be “fully funded” and confirmed it would be published before the NATO summit beginning on 7 July.
The UK's military chief, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, underscored the gravity of the threat in an interview with the BBC. “In my 35-year career, this is the most dangerous period that I have known,” he said. “And as a consequence, it is important that we enhance the capability and the readiness of our armed forces alongside our allies to deter our adversaries from doing something daft.”
The warnings come as Russian drone strikes continue to hit civilian areas in Ukraine, with a recent barrage targeting a residential area in Kharkiv. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to support Kyiv remain active: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, and Starmer himself in London amid recent Russian setbacks on the battlefield.
NATO's eastern flank has been on heightened alert since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. French Rafale jets recently intercepted 11 Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea as part of NATO's air-policing mission, highlighting the frequency of close encounters. Eleven European states have also pushed for stricter visa rules for Russian tourists, reflecting a broader shift in continental policy toward Moscow.
Starmer's remarks are likely to intensify debate within the UK and across Europe about defence spending priorities. The UK is already one of NATO's largest spenders, but the new commitments would bring it closer to the 3% target that some allies, including Poland and the Baltic states, have already surpassed. The NATO summit in Turkey will be a key moment for alliance members to align their strategies and reassure publics that the alliance is prepared for any scenario.
