Recent drone incursions along NATO's eastern flank have intensified the push by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to bolster their air defences. Yet defence experts warn that Europe-wide shortages of equipment and specialised personnel could hamper efforts to close critical gaps in drone detection and response.
“The industrial capacity is the main constraining factor,” said Tomas Jermalavičius, head of studies at Estonia's International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS). As European nations invest heavily in air and missile defence, they are competing for the same radar systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and counter-drone technologies from a limited pool of suppliers. This has led to growing procurement backlogs, rising costs, and delivery times that can stretch for years.
Detection Gaps and Technological Challenges
To counter a drone, militaries need tracking sensors, effectors to neutralise it, and an overarching command architecture that fuses camera feeds, radar data, and acoustic sensor information. “If there is a lack or gap in any of these elements … then the counter is more difficult,” explained Federico Borsari, a defence analyst at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The first bottleneck for the Baltic states remains detection: current European long- and medium-range radar systems struggle to identify drones because they are built from materials that are hard to spot, fly low and slow, and can be confused with birds.
Jermalavičius emphasised the need for more short- and very-short-range radars, which provide a more accurate picture and easier identification. These could be integrated into the existing Boltnet air surveillance system, which shares threat data across the three Baltic countries and with NATO's integrated air and missile defence systems. However, he cautioned that “no country can provide 100% coverage at all times, in all places, of all potential targets against all types of threats. There will be a drone which will always get through no matter what.”
Procurement Bottlenecks and Personnel Shortages
Acquiring these radars is not straightforward. Jermalavičius noted that producing and delivering a single radar system can take up to 24 months. “Europe in general faces massive air defence gaps which are pretty chronic. Everybody’s competing for the same equipment … so everybody goes to the same vendors, the same producers … and then it becomes a very tight race.” Beyond radars, acoustic sensors, electro-optical and infrared sensors are also in short supply across Europe.
Personnel shortages compound the problem. “We are small countries, our labour markets are very competitive, these are very technical professions, so availability of qualified personnel who could be equipped and put into operational duties is another major constraining factor,” Jermalavičius said. The Baltic states and Poland, along NATO's eastern flank, recognise the urgency but acknowledge that “it’s not something you can build overnight,” Borsari added.
Looking ahead, Borsari suggested that the Baltics should weigh short-term radar investments against emerging technologies like high-energy lasers, which could be affordable and effective against drones. Meanwhile, recent events such as the Russian drone barrage hitting Kharkiv and the Ukrainian drone strike near St. Petersburg underscore the evolving threat landscape. The interception of 11 Russian aircraft by French Rafale jets over the Baltic further highlights the region's heightened alert.
