Polling stations opened across Brazil on Sunday morning as the country's 158.7 million registered voters began choosing between two starkly different visions for Latin America's largest economy. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party — son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — is making his electoral debut in a race that has drawn international attention.
Voting is compulsory in Brazil, and stations operated from 8:00 to 17:00 Brasília time. Because the country uses electronic voting machines, preliminary results are expected within three hours of closing, with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) releasing official tallies from 17:00 local time (21:00 in Lisbon).
A generational and ideological clash
At 80, Lula da Silva has framed the election as a defence of Brazilian sovereignty, warning that pressure from Washington under President Donald Trump threatens the country's independence. He has campaigned on his record of social programmes and economic growth during his earlier terms, promising a final mandate to consolidate those gains.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has positioned himself as the heir to his father's political legacy. Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022 and is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence, remains a polarising figure. The younger Bolsonaro has stressed his proximity to the White House, arguing that Brazil needs to negotiate better terms with the Trump administration, particularly over rare earth minerals — a sector where Brazil holds significant reserves.
Opinion polls published in the final days of the campaign put the two candidates in a statistical tie, with Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% of voting intentions. Neither is expected to cross the 50% threshold needed for an outright victory, meaning a second round is almost certain on 25 October.
Beyond the presidency
Sunday's vote extends far beyond the presidential palace. Brazilians are also electing 27 state governors, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and 54 of the 81 seats in the Senate. These races will shape the political landscape for years, determining whether the next president can govern with a supportive congress or faces a fragmented opposition.
Abroad, some 918,000 registered voters are casting ballots for president and vice-president only. Portugal hosts the second-largest Brazilian electoral constituency outside the country, and voting there has been under way for several hours. Early provisional results from Asia and Oceania show Lula leading in Malaysia, Singapore, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, while Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead in the Philippines and Japan.
The outcome will be closely watched in European capitals, where Brazil is a key partner on trade, climate and digital governance. A victory for Lula would likely mean continued cooperation with the EU on environmental issues, while a Bolsonaro presidency could align Brazil more closely with the Trump administration's agenda, potentially complicating EU-Brazil relations. The inquiry into alleged US funding of far-right groups has already added a layer of tension to the bilateral relationship.
As Brazilians cast their ballots, the world watches to see whether the country will continue its leftward path or join the rightward shift that has swept parts of South America. The first results, expected within hours, will offer an early indication — but the final verdict may have to wait until late October.
