Forecasters are predicting an unusually powerful El Niño this season, and scientists in Ecuador are bracing for severe consequences on the Galápagos Islands, a UNESCO World Heritage site renowned for its extraordinary endemic species. The archipelago, located about 1,000 kilometres off Ecuador's Pacific coast, comprises more than 230 islands, only four of which are inhabited. It hosts the highest concentration of species found nowhere else on Earth, making it a unique natural laboratory and a conservation priority.
The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs periodically in the equatorial Pacific, is marked by a rise in sea surface temperatures and intense rainfall. Its strength is gauged by comparing water temperatures to the historical average. A deviation of 2°C above normal is classified as “very strong.” The latest projection from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates temperatures could reach 2.2°C above normal, prompting alarm among researchers.
“The impact will be significant,” says Franklin Ormaza, a professor and researcher at the Faculty of Maritime Engineering and Marine Sciences of the Higher Polytechnic School of the Coast (ESPOL) in Guayaquil. The warming waters are expected to disrupt the entire marine food web, with cascading effects on the islands' iconic fauna.
Wildlife at risk
As sea temperatures rise, “plankton, algae, and smaller fish species, which are food for larger marine animals, practically disappear,” explains Washington Tapia, director of Biodiversa Ecuador, a conservation organisation working in the archipelago. This loss of prey will hit species such as the Galápagos penguin, blue-footed booby, petrels, flightless cormorants, albatrosses, and even sea lions. Coral colonies and tuna fisheries are also likely to suffer.
Without adequate food, “animal colonies stop reproducing,” disperse in search of sustenance, and often die of starvation, notes Gustavo Jiménez, a scientist at the Charles Darwin Foundation. He warns that if the phenomenon unfolds as expected, the archipelago's vertebrate population could decline by at least 20% this year.
The Galápagos penguin, one of the most closely monitored species, serves as a stark indicator of El Niño's impact. According to data from the Charles Darwin Foundation, after the devastating 1998 El Niño – one of the most powerful on record – only 400 of the 1,300 existing Galápagos penguins survived. That event offers a grim preview of what could happen again.
Threats to flora
The islands' unique plant life is equally vulnerable. Heinke Jager, also of the Charles Darwin Foundation, warns that the last three remaining Scalesia forests – dominated by giant daisy trees that can reach 20 metres in height – could disappear if El Niño strikes with full force. These forests, found only in the Galápagos, support a web of insects, birds, and smaller plants that are integral to the archipelago's biodiversity.
Opuntia cacti, which grow along the seashore, are also under threat. Jager explains that these species “need human support” because the heavy rains brought by El Niño will allow invasive plants, such as blackberries, to overrun their territory. Invasive species have shorter reproductive cycles and can quickly outcompete native flora.
To counter these threats, a collaborative plan has been organised involving the Ecuadorian government, foundations, and non-governmental organisations. The strategy includes eradicating invasive plants, collecting seeds, and establishing nurseries to preserve threatened species. The goal is to give the archipelago's unique ecosystems a fighting chance against the coming climatic shock.
The situation in the Galápagos echoes broader concerns about climate resilience across the planet. While the islands are a special case, the interplay of warming oceans and extreme weather is a global challenge. For Europe, which has its own vulnerable species and ecosystems, the Galápagos serves as a reminder of the need for proactive conservation. As Europe's top wildlife encounters draw increasing attention, the lessons from the Pacific are clear: protecting biodiversity requires both local action and international cooperation.
For now, scientists are watching the ocean temperatures closely, hoping that the forecasts are wrong. But as the 1998 event showed, the consequences of a very strong El Niño can be devastating and long-lasting. The coming months will be critical for the Galápagos and its extraordinary inhabitants.
