The next ten days will be pivotal for EU-China relations. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is set to travel to Beijing later this week for high-level discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao, as Brussels seeks to secure concrete commitments to rebalance a trade relationship that has become increasingly lopsided. The talks come ahead of a meeting of EU leaders next week, where China will dominate the agenda.
The stakes are high. The EU's trade deficit with China has hit a record €1 billion a day, and European policymakers warn that a new wave of Chinese competition is putting thousands of jobs at risk across the continent. A Franco-German document sent to capitals and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday described a "massive industrial shock" affecting sectors at the heart of the European industrial model, including pharmaceuticals, aerospace, automotive, machine tools, and chemicals.
What Brussels hopes to achieve in Beijing
Negotiations between EU and Chinese officials have been ongoing since June, but progress has been slow. Šefčovič's visit on Thursday and Friday is intended to inject political momentum. The Europeans are pressing for commitments that would reduce the trade imbalance and protect the EU's 450 million consumers from a flood of low-cost imports. EU Industry Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné told Euronews that the bloc is losing "thousands of jobs every week," with 250,000 industrial jobs lost last year alone.
Another key issue is access to rare earths, which are essential for European industry. Beijing blocked exports in 2025 during a trade war with the United States, and while shipments have resumed, the truce is only guaranteed until 10 January 2027. The Commission wants a more durable arrangement.
Germany shifts closer to France
Germany, long the EU's most China-friendly major economy, has changed its stance. In 2024, Berlin opposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, but Chancellor Friedrich Merz has since moved closer to President Emmanuel Macron's tougher line. In a joint letter to von der Leyen, the two leaders called for "the full use" of existing trade defence instruments and a new "comprehensive framework" with additional legal tools. They proposed a mechanism that would allow the Commission to act decisively, including potentially cutting off access to the internal market, unless a qualified majority of member states objected.
Spain remains one of the most cautious member states, having courted Chinese investment for years. However, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling new elections, Madrid's ability to resist a harder line may be limited.
Industry calls for action despite retaliation risks
European businesses are urging the EU to take tougher measures, even at the risk of Chinese retaliation. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) published a report on 25 September warning that "systemic competition with China's economy is increasingly calling into question the resilience of the open social market economy." It argued that while de-risking carries costs, "inaction would be significantly more costly economically in the long term and irresponsible from a security policy perspective."
The Commission launched a consultation with EU businesses on 29 September to shape new measures, including a diversification tool to address situations where reliance on a single supplier poses a risk to security of supply. Beijing demonstrated such vulnerabilities in 2025 when it restricted exports of rare earths and chips used in the automotive industry, in a dispute involving Dutch-based Nexperia.
Will China play ball?
Since talks began, little progress has been made. Beijing wants to maintain access to the EU market, while the Commission is seeking import quotas by product. China holds significant leverage, including its control over rare earths and other critical materials. The EU is also mindful of China's role in global supply chains, and any disruption could have wider economic consequences.
As the talks unfold, the EU is also dealing with other trade challenges, including proposed curbs on Ukrainian farm imports and broader questions about EU reform ahead of enlargement. The outcome of the Beijing talks will be closely watched by member states, with France and Germany pushing for new EU powers to counter China's trade practices.
For now, the Commission is under pressure to deliver tangible results. EU leaders expect a clear strategy when they meet next week, and the coming days will show whether Beijing is willing to make concessions or whether the bloc will have to resort to more forceful measures.
