The European Union's ambitious enlargement agenda is hitting an unexpected obstacle: the European Commission's own administrative capacity. The Directorate-General for Enlargement and the Eastern Neighbourhood (DG ENEST), the department responsible for managing accession negotiations, is struggling to keep pace with the bloc's renewed expansion drive, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
The irony is not lost on officials in Brussels. The very success of the enlargement policy—which has seen more negotiating chapters closed in the last six months than in the previous decade—has stretched the department's resources to the limit. The last country to join the EU was Croatia in 2013, and much of the institutional knowledge from that wave has since dissipated.
Montenegro's fast track and the cost of progress
Montenegro, often described as the frontrunner, is currently having its accession treaty drafted, with an ambitious target of becoming the EU's 28th member by 2028. To finalise the work with Podgorica, the Commission has had to set up a dedicated task force, which has required a significant reallocation of officials—many of whom were previously working on Western Balkan countries that have made little recent progress.
“It is not just the candidate countries that struggle to keep up with the massive workload required,” an official told European Pulse on condition of anonymity. “The Commission has lost the institutional memory and capacity of the last enlargement wave.”
Albania is close behind Montenegro, hoping to begin work on its own accession treaty early next year. Tirana has moved exceptionally fast under the current enlargement methodology, but even so, it took more than a year to formally open all negotiating clusters—a pace that may be difficult to replicate elsewhere.
Iceland's comeback and the Ukrainian challenge
Adding to the strain, Iceland is staging an unexpected comeback. Reykjavík has called a referendum on 29 August to decide whether to resume its accession path, which was frozen in 2015. If Icelanders vote yes, the Commission would need to establish another accession treaty task force and significantly ramp up resources dedicated to the island nation.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Moldova have opened two negotiating chapters in recent weeks, and there is political pressure to open the remaining four clusters before the end of the year. However, Hungary, led by Viktor Orbán, has pushed for a more gradual approach, citing domestic political reasons. The Commission has already engaged in “frontloading”—advancing technical work on Kyiv's bid while it was formally blocked by Budapest—but the political ambition to move on several clusters at once may now face a reality check on both sides.
Neither Ukraine nor Moldova has ever had to manage negotiations and legal integration of this complexity before. Their administrations are reaching their limits, and Brussels officials admit that advancing with so many countries simultaneously will inevitably require re-prioritising internal resources.
A broader institutional gap
The Commission is not alone in struggling to keep up. The Council of the EU and member states are also scrambling to build up their internal capacity to handle the technical and political demands of enlargement. This is a significant test for a bloc that has made enlargement a cornerstone of its foreign policy, as Germany's Europe minister has noted that budget options are limited amid the push.
The challenge is compounded by the fact that DG ENEST, like many other Commission departments, relies heavily on temporary contracts and has few permanent officials. This leads to high turnover and a lack of experienced negotiators, particularly since the last accession was over a decade ago. The situation is reminiscent of the difficulties faced during the 2004 “big bang” enlargement, but with a smaller and less experienced team.
Some observers point to the stalled EU bid of Serbia as a potential complication, as it could entangle Ukraine's accession path. Others note that the EU's focus on enlargement comes at a time when other pressing issues, such as wildfire smoke travelling across Europe and threats to global shipping, demand attention.
In the coming months, Brussels will have to prove that its political commitment to enlargement is matched by an adequate allocation of resources. The risk is that the process becomes a victim of its own success, with candidate countries left waiting as the EU's administrative machinery struggles to keep up.
