The El Niño now building in the equatorial Pacific has already shattered records, and it is still intensifying. Sea surface temperatures have climbed beyond any previously measured for this climate phenomenon, prompting warnings from meteorologists and health authorities worldwide. Between June 2026 and February 2027, the extreme heat associated with this event could contribute to an estimated 451,000 additional deaths, according to expert projections.
The scale of the threat has triggered an unprecedented mobilisation by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with governments from California to India moving to shore up defences. Outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation in stark terms in early September: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
Yet even as the world braces for a year of extreme weather, scientists and aid agencies insist that much can still be done to limit the damage – both in the coming months and over the longer term.
Why this El Niño is different
El Niño begins in the Pacific, but its effects ripple across the globe. When equatorial waters warm unusually, they release heat into the atmosphere, nudging up global temperatures and redrawing rainfall patterns. With ocean heat already at record levels, this event could amplify heatwaves, droughts and torrential rains in vulnerable regions – earning it the nicknames ‘Godzilla’ and ‘Super’ El Niño.
Some impacts are already visible. India has seen below-normal monsoon rainfall, while southern Africa faces an elevated risk of drought. For Europe, the direct effects are likely to be less severe, but the continent is not immune. El Niño can influence winter weather across the Atlantic, and disruptions to harvests in other parts of the world can tighten supplies of imported foods – a concern for European consumers already grappling with cost-of-living pressures.
In the United States, California Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a preemptive state of emergency to prepare for potential flooding, landslides, coastal erosion and powerful winter storms. Similar preparations are underway in other regions, but experts say the key is to act before the worst arrives.
Preparation can soften the blow
“The key is to manage water and prepare for the changes in where and when rainfall occurs,” says Davide Faranda, research director at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and a lead author for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He points to practical measures: storing and distributing water more carefully, regulating reservoirs and groundwater use, adjusting planting schedules and irrigation practices, and readying communities for droughts or floods.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued similar guidance. Farmers can reduce losses by shifting planting dates, irrigating during cooler hours, storing water ahead of dry spells, and protecting crops and livestock from extreme heat. Some governments are providing financial support. The UK has pledged up to £15 million (€17 million) to help vulnerable countries prepare, funding measures from vaccinating livestock before droughts to reinforcing homes before floods and giving farmers cash before harvests fail.
For Europe, the indirect risks are real. A severe El Niño can disrupt global food markets, pushing up prices for staples like wheat and vegetable oils. European governments and businesses should monitor these supply chains and consider strategic reserves, says Faranda. “We cannot eliminate El Niño through climate mitigation, but we can reduce the extent to which climate change makes its consequences more severe.”
Climate change is making El Niño worse
Most El Niño events raise global average temperatures by around 0.2°C. That may sound modest, but it is enough to trigger extreme weather across the Global South. It is, however, a fraction of the warming caused by human activity. The burning of fossil fuels has already pushed global average surface temperatures roughly 1.3°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels – a backdrop that turned Europe’s summer into a season of scorching heat, mass droughts and wildfires.
El Niño’s impacts are therefore compounded by an already warming world. That is why 2025 was the third warmest year on record – hotter than the El Niño year of 2016 – despite the cooling influence of a La Niña event. Recent research suggests that climate change is also turbocharging El Niño itself. A study published in August found that El Niños are now 36 per cent stronger than before the industrial era, a trend linked directly to human-caused warming.
If climate change is making El Niño more powerful, preparation alone will not be enough. But Faranda insists that cutting emissions can make a significant difference over the long term. A hotter planet means more extreme heat, more strain on water supplies and, in some places, more intense rainfall. Reducing emissions would not stop the natural climate cycle that produces El Niño, but it would lessen the human-caused warming that amplifies its impacts.
That means the damage is not entirely beyond our control. As the world watches this ‘Godzilla’ El Niño unfold, the choices made now – in water management, in agricultural planning, and in the transition away from fossil fuels – will determine how much of the forecast devastation becomes reality. For Europe, the message is clear: prepare for the immediate disruptions, but also invest in the long-term resilience that only decisive climate action can provide.
