International travel is set to reach an all-time high in 2026, with 1.57 billion overnight arrivals expected worldwide, according to the WTM Global Travel Report released at World Travel Market in London. Europe is forecast to see a 5% increase in arrivals, outpacing the global average of 2% growth, as travelers increasingly opt for destinations closer to home.
The report, produced by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, draws on data from more than 185 countries. It projects total visitor nights—including domestic and international travel—to reach 23.9 billion, with in-destination spending rising 9% to $7.8 trillion (€6.97 trillion).
Despite ongoing conflicts, higher airfares, and cost-of-living pressures, three in four consumers still consider leisure travel a priority. However, they are adapting their choices. "Travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before," said Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA of Tourism Economics. "Leisure travel remains a key priority in consumer budgets, even as travellers are adapting how and where they visit in response to ongoing disruption and cost-of-living pressures. The industry is on course for another record year."
Europe benefits from shift to shorter-haul trips
The report identifies Europe as a major beneficiary of changing travel patterns. While intra-regional trips are expected to rise by 3% globally, inter-regional journeys—including long-haul travel—are set to decline by 3%. Higher oil prices, reduced capacity through Gulf aviation hubs, and safety concerns have made longer journeys less attractive.
The Middle East has been hit hardest, with international arrivals forecast to fall by 40% this year. In contrast, Europe remains the largest destination region for international leisure nights, which are projected to increase by 4% in 2026. This trend is reflected in recent data showing Europeans flocking to Spain and emerging cities.
Travelers are also exploring new destinations, with cities like Prague, Kraków, and Istanbul topping solo travel rankings for Europe. This diversification is helping to spread tourism benefits across the continent.
Recovery expected to accelerate in 2027
Looking ahead, the report forecasts global international arrivals to grow by 8% in 2027, including an 11% rebound in inter-regional travel as disruptions ease. Europe is expected to see another 5% increase, while the Middle East is projected to recover by 43%—though still below its 2025 levels.
The report cautions that geopolitical tensions and renewed conflict could delay this recovery. Recent events, such as reported US strikes on Qeshm, underscore the fragility of the global security environment.
Long-term outlook: Europe to gain 226 million arrivals by 2032
By 2032, Europe is expected to record the largest absolute increase in international arrivals of any region, with annual arrivals rising by 226 million between 2026 and 2032—an average growth of around 4% per year. Globally, international overnight arrivals are projected to reach 2.2 billion by 2032, supported by rising incomes, continued prioritisation of travel, and expanding aviation and accommodation capacity.
European leisure spending, including domestic and international visitors, is forecast to reach $2.05 trillion (€1.83 trillion) in 2026. International leisure spending is expected to rise by 11%, while domestic spending increases by 8% (figures in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation).
The report's findings align with other positive signals for the European travel sector, such as Portugal's record house prices, which reflect growing demand for European destinations. As the industry adapts to new realities, Europe's appeal as a diverse, accessible, and resilient travel hub remains strong.
