As world leaders gather in Antalya for COP31, the head of the International Energy Agency has issued a stark warning: Europe's energy future depends on a rapid shift to electricity, not on the fragile global markets for oil and gas.
In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Fatih Birol called on governments to increase electricity's share of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, a target that is expected to be a central theme of the climate summit. He argued that accelerating electrification is not just an environmental imperative but a strategic one, particularly for the European Union, which remains exposed to volatile energy prices despite efforts to diversify away from Russian supplies.
The European Commission estimates that disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have added €127 billion to the EU's energy import bill since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Industrial production across the bloc continues to fall, and Birol warned that a prolonged closure of the strait could have severe consequences for Europe and the global economy.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a very long time, it would have major implications for the global economy and that of Europe,” he said.
Birol also played down hopes that a possible US decision to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports would provide significant relief. Europe has lost refined products from the Middle East, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have further tightened global supplies. With winter approaching, demand for diesel and jet fuel is rising, but Birol insisted that Russian supplies would not solve the structural shortage.
“The amount of diesel which could come from Russia will not be a solution to this problem,” he said, acknowledging that additional Russian supplies might offer “some relief” but would not address the underlying deficit, particularly given the EU's declining refining capacity. “We lost the Middle East's refined product delivery to Europe. It is not coming,” he added.
Birol warned that refined product markets could remain tight in the coming months, raising the prospect of fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “If the current situation continues, there may be a question of availability in that case,” he said.
Electrification as a path to sovereignty
Birol argued that the answer to Europe's recurring energy shocks lies in generating more electricity domestically from solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower. “Europe's energy future is electrification,” he said, urging the bloc to reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels. “If Europe wants to remain a sovereign part of the world, if Europe wants to be competitive and clean, the energy future is electrification.”
He also criticised Europe's retreat from nuclear power, echoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's description of the shift as a “strategic mistake.” Nuclear power accounted for around one-third of EU electricity generation in the 1990s, compared with approximately 15% today, according to Birol.
His call for a faster rollout of electric vehicles and heat pumps comes as leaders in Antalya are expected to agree on a global target to raise electrification to 35% by 2035. The European Commission has proposed raising the EU's electrification rate to 46% by 2040, roughly double the 23% level at which it has stagnated over the past decade. Although that figure remains indicative, negotiations on the EU's post-2030 energy framework could turn it into a legally binding target.
EU countries broadly support a global electrification target, but they softened their position in the final COP31 conclusions, agreed on 12 October. A September draft had welcomed the COP31 presidency's proposal, but the final text merely states that the “EU looks forward to discussing” the initiative. The Czech Republic is among the countries sceptical of the proposal, according to a senior Commission official, suggesting that the bloc's own 46% ambition could also face resistance.
Birol argued that the cost of transforming Europe's energy system must be weighed against the economic price of continued dependence on imported fuels. The stakes are high, and the window for action is narrow. As COP31 gets underway, the debate over electrification will be a test of whether Europe can turn its energy vulnerabilities into a strategic advantage.
