Iran's political power structure is undergoing a significant and visible shift, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) increasingly dictating state policy and overriding the country's nominal civilian leadership. According to analyses from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War and U.S. intelligence assessments, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi is now making pivotal military and political decisions alongside Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, effectively sidelining elected officials.
Key figures like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian reportedly cannot make decisions without IRGC approval. This power dynamic was starkly illustrated when Amir-Abdollahian announced the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, only for the IRGC to countermand the order the following day, declaring the waterway closed again. The move prompted attacks on the foreign minister from hardline commentators and state media.
From Revolutionary Force to Political Kingmaker
The IRGC's ascent to the apex of Iranian power is the culmination of a decades-long evolution. Established in April 1979 by order of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the force was created as a parallel military institution built on revolutionary zeal and ideological loyalty to the nascent Islamic Republic, rather than formal military training. Its role was cemented during the brutal eight-year war with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, where it employed guerrilla tactics and asymmetric warfare.
Commanders rose through the ranks at remarkably young ages. Former IRGC brigadier general Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated he commanded a division at just 19 or 20. Mohsen Rezaei was appointed commander-in-chief at 28, holding the role for 16 years. This early empowerment created a cadre of leaders with deep institutional loyalty and significant political ambition.
Following the Iran-Iraq war, the IRGC expanded its mandate dramatically. It moved into economic reconstruction, building a vast business empire through entities like the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters. This created powerful patronage networks and a privileged class, often referred to as aghazadeh (children of the revolution). Simultaneously, its external operations branch, the Quds Force, extended Iran's influence across the Middle East, helping establish Hezbollah in Lebanon, propping up the Syrian government, and supporting Houthi forces in Yemen.
A Shadow Government in Plain Sight
The recent consolidation of power appears systematic. Reports indicate President Masoud Pezeshkian was forced in March to appoint Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council after direct demands from IRGC commanders, particularly Vahidi. This appointment followed the killing of the previous secretary, longtime powerbroker Ali Larijani, and occurred despite objections from civilian officials.
Vahidi has publicly hinted at this new reality, stating that under current conditions, all critical positions must be chosen and managed directly by the Revolutionary Guards. The institution's former commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari, articulated this broader mission in a 2016 interview, stating the IRGC is tasked not merely with conventional defense but with "protecting the political system and confronting internal threats."
This internal political dominance is matched by continued external activity. The IRGC's Quds Force remains a key backer of Hamas in Gaza. Furthermore, according to international media reports, the IRGC has been instrumental in delivering drones and military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine, a conflict that has direct energy and security implications for Europe. The force has also expanded its financial and operational reach into parts of Latin America, notably Venezuela.
European Implications and Regional Instability
The IRGC's tightening grip on Tehran's decision-making apparatus has profound implications for European security and diplomacy. An increasingly militarized and ideologically rigid command structure in Iran complicates already fraught negotiations over its nuclear program and regional activities. European capitals, from Paris to Berlin, have long sought to engage Iranian civilian diplomats, but their apparent diminishment reduces viable channels for dialogue.
The group's direct involvement in conflicts from Syria to Yemen—and its material support for Russia's war effort—directly affects European interests. The IRGC's role in Syria's regional reintegration is a key factor in Middle Eastern stability, which is inextricably linked to European energy security and migration flows. Moreover, the tactics honed by the IRGC, including the use of drone warfare and proxy forces, are being studied in European capitals, much as lessons from Ukraine are being integrated into EU defense strategy.
The consolidation of power within a single, unaccountable military institution marks a critical juncture for Iran. It suggests a move away from even the facade of a hybrid theocratic-republican system toward a more overt military dictatorship cloaked in revolutionary ideology. For Europe, this signals a future where dealing with Iran increasingly means dealing directly with the IRGC, a designated terrorist organization by several member states, raising complex legal and geopolitical challenges for the EU's common foreign policy.
