Negotiators have finalized a draft memorandum that could de-escalate tensions between Iran and the United States, but the agreement now awaits the approval of President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The proposed deal, brokered with support from Pakistan and Oman, aims to address key sticking points that have disrupted global trade and regional stability.
The draft includes provisions for unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Iran would be required to remove naval mines within 30 days, while the US would grant sanctions waivers allowing Iran to export oil. These steps are designed to build confidence before broader nuclear negotiations resume.
European Stakes in the Gulf
For European capitals, the outcome of this deal carries significant weight. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for European energy imports, and any disruption there directly impacts economies from Berlin to Madrid. The European Union has long advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran-US standoff, and this framework could provide a path toward stability.
However, European officials remain cautious. The draft memorandum does not address Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for proxy groups in the Middle East, issues that have fueled tensions with European allies. As some MEPs have noted, Trump's unilateral approach has pushed the EU to adopt a more assertive global role, but the bloc still relies on US leadership in security matters.
The proposed deal also comes amid broader regional shifts. Trump has been pushing for expansion of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. A détente with Iran could reshape alliances in the Gulf, potentially isolating Tehran's proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Nuclear Talks on the Horizon
If the current memorandum is approved, it would pave the way for renewed negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Trump withdrew from in 2018, collapsed amid mutual recriminations. European signatories—France, Germany, and the UK—have struggled to maintain the agreement's framework, but a new deal could revive their diplomatic efforts.
Iran has enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels since the JCPOA's collapse, raising alarm in Vienna and Brussels. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium far exceeds JCPOA limits. Any new nuclear talks would need to address these violations while offering Tehran credible economic incentives.
The timeline for approval remains unclear. Trump has previously claimed that a framework deal was largely negotiated, but his administration has also imposed new sanctions on Iranian entities. Khamenei, meanwhile, has publicly dismissed negotiations as a US tactic to undermine the Islamic Republic. Both leaders face domestic pressures that could delay or derail the agreement.
For European observers, the stakes are high. A failure to secure the deal could lead to renewed hostilities in the Gulf, threatening shipping lanes and energy prices. Conversely, a successful agreement could reduce the risk of a broader conflict and open the door for European companies to re-enter the Iranian market, which was largely closed after sanctions were reimposed.
As the world waits for Trump and Khamenei to signal their intentions, European diplomats are urging restraint. The EU's foreign policy chief has called for all parties to seize the diplomatic opportunity, warning that the alternative is a return to the brinkmanship that has defined US-Iran relations for decades.
