QatarEnergy has again extended its force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely impassable for LNG carriers. The move, which now runs into early November, underscores how the disruption triggered by the Iran war continues to reshape global energy trade.
Italian utility Edison confirmed that QatarEnergy will be unable to deliver five more cargoes scheduled between late September and early November. That brings the total number of cancelled shipments under Edison's contract since April to 29, equivalent to roughly 3.8 billion cubic metres of natural gas. Edison said it has already replaced 21 of those cargoes, about 2 billion cubic metres, and can still meet its commitments to customers.
QatarEnergy has also informed buyers in Pakistan that cancellations will continue into October, while supplies to Bangladesh will remain affected beyond September. Other European importers have begun receiving similar notices, according to market sources.
The company first declared force majeure in March and has renewed it month by month as the crisis has dragged on far longer than initially expected. “Absent any political resolution or one of the main stakeholders blinking first, we are still likely to be there for quite some time,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. She noted that QatarEnergy is extending force majeure monthly because it still lacks a reliable date for resuming normal exports.
QatarEnergy did not respond to a request for comment.
How buyers are coping with the shortfall
The disruption has removed most Qatari LNG from the global market. According to ICIS data, Qatar exported only 18 cargoes in the first six months of the war, compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier. The loss is estimated to have cost Qatar around $24 billion (€20.7 billion) in forgone gas sales.
Other exporters have stepped in to fill part of the gap. Corbeau said more LNG has come from the United States and Canada, including from facilities that started production over the past year. Output has also been stronger in Nigeria and Malaysia. However, replacement supplies have not covered the entire shortfall. Some Asian markets have cut consumption or switched to other fuels, while Europe has drawn more heavily on storage rather than competing aggressively for expensive spot cargoes.
“Available cargoes are going to the buyers bidding for them,” Corbeau said, noting that some Southeast Asian buyers have remained active despite high prices. She warned that the prolonged loss of Qatari and Emirati LNG could cause global trade to fall in 2026, even as output grows elsewhere.
Uneven impact across Europe and Asia
The effects are far from uniform. European Union LNG imports were lower than a year earlier between April and August, and Chinese imports also declined, though the monthly pattern varied. Corbeau identified Pakistan, Bangladesh and India as the most vulnerable, given their heavy reliance on Qatari or Emirati LNG and limited long-term contracts. Japan, by contrast, is better protected because it buys relatively little from Qatar and has a diversified portfolio of oil-indexed and US-linked contracts.
China has so far managed the loss of a significant volume of Qatari LNG, while Europe has coped partly by using more gas from storage, leaving stocks lower than usual. New LNG export capacity under construction in the US, Canada, Australia and Nigeria should gradually add more non-Qatari supply, but Corbeau estimates it could take until 2028 for the global market to return to the supply-demand balance previously expected by mid-2026.
The Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global LNG trade before the Iran war. Some oil tankers have continued to use the waterway, but LNG carriers are more specialised, less available and harder to replace, leaving Qatar with few practical alternatives for exporting its gas. Corbeau said QatarEnergy expects to restore output from its 12 undamaged production units within about two months once it is satisfied that the strait is secure. Repairs to two other units damaged in attacks on Ras Laffan could take between three and five years.
Limited LNG movements resumed after a June memorandum between the US and Iran, but the recovery proved short-lived as renewed attacks again raised shipping risks. Corbeau said the brief restart showed that Qatar could resume exports relatively quickly from its undamaged facilities, but only if ships can pass through Hormuz safely and consistently. “The most important thing is to make sure the strait is really open,” she said. “And that has proven difficult.”
For European policymakers, the crisis has added urgency to temporary fuel tax cuts and other measures to cushion the economic blow. The broader geopolitical tensions, including recent attacks on US bases, show no sign of easing, and diplomatic efforts such as Qatar's premier visiting Tehran have yet to yield a breakthrough.
