A pair of new reports from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) deliver a sobering message: the world will almost certainly overshoot the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold, but a rapid peak and decline in emissions could still keep the worst climate impacts at bay.
UNEP's annual Emissions Gap report, released this week, projects a best-case warming of 1.8°C by 2100, with other scenarios exceeding 2°C. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed that making this overshoot as "small and short as possible" is essential to securing humanity's future. The report outlines a pathway of "overshoot, peak and decline" as the most realistic route back below the 1.5°C limit.
Yet the ETC's separate analysis, published alongside, highlights what it calls a "paradox of progress": despite a record €1.9 trillion invested annually in clean energy, renewables are only meeting 40% of the increase in global electricity demand. Surging demand from AI data centres and air-conditioning, combined with overloaded grids, is eating into the gains.
Why record renewables aren't cutting emissions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that data centre energy consumption rose 17% in 2025, now accounting for 1.5–2% of global electricity use, and is set to double by 2030. Heatwaves are also driving up demand for cooling, particularly in southern Europe and other hot regions.
Grid bottlenecks are a major culprit. In Europe alone, 375 GW of renewable capacity is waiting for grid connections, while in the US the queue stretches to 2,300 GW. In the UK, connection wait times can reach ten years, prompting some developers to build on-site solar and gas microgrids. As a result, global emissions are plateauing rather than falling, putting the world on course for 2.5°C of warming, according to the ETC.
Electricity still accounts for only about a fifth of total energy use, meaning decarbonising heating, industry and transport remains critical. The ETC warns that without addressing these sectors, even a renewables boom won't translate into meaningful emission reductions.
Getting back on track: methane, grids, and demand
Both reports agree on near-term priorities, starting with methane. This potent greenhouse gas is responsible for around 0.5°C of warming, but it lingers in the atmosphere for a shorter time than CO₂. Early reductions from oil and gas operations, food waste and landfills could therefore have a rapid cooling effect.
Countries must also shift investment away from fossil-based infrastructure—power plants, transport systems, industrial facilities—towards low-emissions alternatives. UNEP's report suggests scaling renewables from their current 34% of global electricity to 60–70% by 2030, aligning with the COP28 pledge to triple renewable capacity. Storage, demand flexibility and grid upgrades are essential, as the ETC notes that more funded clean generation is waiting for grid connections than the entire 900 GW annual shortfall needed to meet the 2030 target.
Reducing demand is another key lever. Low-cost measures include energy efficiency improvements, electrification of heating and cooling, and behavioural shifts in transport and diets. The reports also stress that faster emission cuts now will reduce reliance on uncertain future technologies like carbon dioxide removal (CDR), though responsible deployment and monitoring of CDR remain important long-term goals.
For Europe, the findings carry particular weight. The continent's grid bottlenecks and the rising cost of fuel imports underscore the urgency of modernising infrastructure. Meanwhile, the digital transformation and its energy demands are a growing concern for policymakers from Tallinn to Madrid.
As UNEP's report makes clear, the window for limiting overshoot is closing fast. But with decisive action on methane, grids and demand, the world can still avoid the most catastrophic climate outcomes.
