Talks aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine have made little headway, but the diplomatic focus is shifting. Moscow is increasingly pushing for a broader deal on European security, raising concerns that the Kremlin is trying to reshape the continent's future on its own terms.
This week's US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi, which involved Ukrainian and Russian delegations, produced an agreement in principle on a major prisoner exchange but no breakthrough on a ceasefire or territorial settlement. Instead, the conversation has turned to who should represent Europe at the negotiating table and what the continent's security architecture should look like after the war.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travelled from Abu Dhabi to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, before heading to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In Dublin, Zelenskyy warned against discussing Europe's future security arrangements before ending the war and securing guarantees for Ukraine.
"A lot depends on when and how the war will end in Ukraine and this will have influence on all other steps," Zelenskyy said. "And all these steps will be after the ending of the war, after the security guarantees for Ukraine."
Zelenskyy argued that Ukraine is already an integral part of Europe's security architecture, and that its potential NATO membership would determine the shape of future arrangements. "We are the part of Europe and we are the parts of security architecture already. So if we are in NATO – that's what I said to Jared and Steve – if we will be in NATO, this is one architecture," he said.
Putin's 'mental trap'
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, speaking to reporters in Dublin on Friday, warned that focusing on Europe's future security architecture risks distracting from the immediate priority of ending the war. "This is a mental trap to talk about European security architecture before the peace. Because this is what Putin does. It makes us talk between each other about our matters, but not about the matter that matters. That is the peace," Michal said.
He called for continued European support for Ukraine and greater pressure on Russia, especially as Moscow intensifies attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure ahead of winter. "The European plan for a while is quite simple: help Ukraine push Russia," he added.
The debate has also raised concerns that Moscow could use negotiations over European security to revive its longstanding demands and strengthen its position ahead of high-level talks in China next week. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia expected Witkoff and Kushner to convey Putin's messages to Zelenskyy, and that Moscow remains in contact with the US envoys before a potential trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November.
Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, speaking to Russian state television after the Abu Dhabi talks, invoked the prospect of a new great-power settlement, drawing comparisons with the Second World War conferences at Yalta and Potsdam, where the victorious powers negotiated Europe's future. "The task now is to create a comprehensive security system in Europe that would become a new, modern Yalta and Potsdam," Medinsky said. He argued that a "fair security system" could guarantee peace in Europe "for decades and even centuries", provided it met Russia's demands.
European leaders are wary of such comparisons. The Dublin summit of EU leaders this week sought to present a unified front, but divisions remain over how to engage with Moscow. Some, like French President Emmanuel Macron, have floated the idea of a European security dialogue with Russia, while others, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, insist that any such discussion must be conditional on a just peace in Ukraine.
Before the Abu Dhabi talks, there were cautious hopes of progress on territorial disputes, with a senior US official suggesting that Ukraine and Russia had privately shown "a little bit of flexibility". President Trump even suggested that Ukraine could emerge from the war with "a little bit different shape", without specifying what territorial changes he envisaged.
Zelenskyy had proposed de-escalatory steps and a trilateral meeting at the leaders' level. "At the meetings in Abu Dhabi, our team will propose de-escalatory steps, and there must be an understanding of how to arrange a trilateral meeting at the leaders' level to bring this war to an end fairly and for real," he wrote on X.
But Medinsky's remarks after the negotiations suggested that Moscow's position on ending the war remained unchanged. He ruled out territorial exchanges involving Russian-held areas along the border and insisted that Moscow would only accept a settlement that meets its security demands.
The coming weeks will be crucial. With winter approaching and Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure intensifying, the pressure is on for a diplomatic breakthrough. Yet the Kremlin's push for a broader European security deal, reminiscent of the great-power conferences of the past, has put the continent on alert. As Michal put it, the immediate priority must be peace in Ukraine, not abstract discussions about architecture that could play into Putin's hands.
