Europe is facing a fresh test of its energy resilience after drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline forced a precautionary shutdown, disrupting a key crude artery that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline, which carries roughly 4–5 million barrels per day—about 4–5% of global supply—was hit on 9 September, and the Saudi energy ministry halted operations the following day. The attacks, attributed to Iran-backed Houthi and Iraqi militias, come amid escalating tensions following US and Israeli military action against Iran in late February.
A critical alternative route
The 1,200-kilometre Petroline, built in 1981 after the Iranian Revolution, runs from the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing a vital alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas passes. With the strait effectively blocked, the pipeline's importance has grown, and its outage has sent ripples through global markets. European refiners, already grappling with high energy prices, now face the challenge of replacing Saudi crude grades that are particularly suited to their configurations.
According to energy pricing agency Argus, at least three European refiners had cargoes scheduled for late September cancelled or postponed, in some cases until November. Poland's Orlen, one of the largest buyers, has responded by purchasing 16 additional cargoes from Norway, Britain, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and the Americas to keep its refineries running through October. In a statement on X, Orlen assured that oil deliveries to Poland and its other refineries are ongoing and fully cover demand.
European refineries are not interchangeable machines; they are configured to process specific types of crude. Many rely on Saudi medium and heavier sour grades, which are well-suited to their operations. Replacing these barrels is possible but costly, and may require blending several grades to replicate the characteristics of the lost Saudi supply. As June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, notes, "European refineries that have been reliant on Arab crude via the Red Sea have to find alternatives. But not all crudes are made equal."
Price pressures mount
Oil prices are set globally, so disruptions in Saudi Arabia quickly feed through to European pump prices. With analysts estimating that 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day are at risk, Brent crude has surged above $113 a barrel. Diesel prices, in particular, are rising, hitting hauliers, farmers, and consumers. Several European governments are considering measures to cushion the impact, but the crisis underscores the limits of the EU's energy diversification strategy, which has focused on reducing reliance on Russian gas but remains exposed to other geopolitical shocks.
The severity of the crisis depends on how quickly Saudi Arabia can restore the pipeline. Minor damage has been repaired, but restoring the damaged pumping stations could take up to six weeks, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of oil analysis at Kpler. In the short term, a bypass pipeline around the damaged station is providing a temporary fix, but Kpler notes that West Coast refineries are reducing throughput and relying on inventories, while Yanbu exports are partially disrupted.
As European leaders debate security strategies and hybrid threats, the pipeline attack is a stark reminder that energy security remains a fragile pillar of the continent's stability. The EU's push to diversify energy sources has made progress, but as this episode shows, it provides only one layer of protection against a volatile world.
