Fears that the Iran war and the ensuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a global coal revival have not materialised, according to new data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Analysing near-real-time electricity figures from the world’s largest power markets—including China, the United States, the European Union, and India—CREA found that coal-fired generation was flat in March compared with the previous year, and fell by 3.5 percent outside of China. Seaborne coal transport volumes dropped by three percent globally, reaching their lowest level since 2021, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Renewables cushion the energy shock
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, has sent energy prices soaring and disrupted fuel supplies across Europe and beyond. Yet total fossil fuel power generation fell by one percent year-on-year in March, with gas-fired output declining by four percent. Renewables have played a decisive role in buffering the crisis: solar generation rose by approximately 14 percent last month, while wind energy increased by about eight percent across the countries surveyed. CREA estimates that solar alone saved European consumers €3 billion in March.
The capacity of solar and wind power added globally in 2025 is enough to offset the lost LNG supplies from the Hormuz closure twice over, according to CREA. That finding underscores a structural shift that analysts say is making the energy transition more resilient than many policymakers anticipated. As EU leaders gathered in Cyprus to discuss the crisis, the data suggests that the continent’s accelerated build-out of renewables is already paying dividends.
Why the predicted coal comeback fizzled
Similar predictions of a coal resurgence followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Moscow cut gas exports to Europe. That crisis did initially push up coal use, but by 2023 Europe had seen a record drop in coal consumption and CO₂ emissions as clean energy deployment surged. The current crisis appears to be following a similar pattern, but with even less room for coal to expand.
CREA notes that coal-fired power generation fell most sharply in March in the United States, India, the European Union, Türkiye, and South Africa. The reason is partly economic: coal was already cheaper to run than gas in many markets before the Hormuz blockade, meaning existing plants were already running near full capacity. With transport costs rising due to the crisis, the economic case for investing in new coal capacity has only weakened further. No coal plants were returned to service or had their closure delayed in any country in March, according to CREA.
“The gradual phaseout of coal plants in many countries means they would struggle to increase production quickly,” the report states. Meanwhile, the falling cost of solar and wind generation, combined with improvements in battery storage, is making renewables the more attractive option for both new capacity and grid stability.
Europe leads the shift to energy security through renewables
European nations are already drawing lessons from the crisis. France and the United Kingdom are among those accelerating electrification, heat pump deployment, and solar installations to reduce dependence on imported fuels. The EU’s AccelerateEU plan has been criticised by some experts as too focused on crisis response rather than structural reform, but the CREA data suggests that market forces and policy are aligning to push fossil fuels aside.
The broader implication is clear: energy security is increasingly tied to renewables rather than fossil fuels. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis demonstrates, reliance on a handful of chokepoints for oil and gas leaves economies vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Solar and wind, by contrast, are domestic, abundant, and increasingly cheap. The question now is whether Europe and its partners can maintain the pace of deployment needed to fully insulate themselves from future disruptions.
