Spain's snap general election, called for 29 November, is more than a domestic political gamble. It could redraw the balance of power inside the European Union, stripping the centre-left of its last major government and handing momentum to conservative and far-right forces across the continent.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced the vote on Monday after parliament rejected two housing decrees on Friday, a defeat that underscored the fragility of his minority coalition. His government, already battered by corruption allegations, the unresolved migration crisis in Ceuta and mass protests over housing affordability, now faces an uphill battle for survival.
Polls suggest the centre-right Popular Party (PP) and the far-right Vox could secure a parliamentary majority, making another Sánchez-led government difficult to assemble. If Sánchez loses, the Socialist Party (PSOE) would leave government in Madrid, leaving Denmark, Lithuania and Malta as the only EU member states with centre-left governments. Sweden's Magdalena Andersson could join them if she manages to form a government after September's election, but that remains uncertain.
Brussels braces for a more confrontational left
The implications for Brussels are significant. EU officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Euronews that the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament would likely adopt a more combative stance toward the European Commission and its centre-right allies. Without Sánchez in power, the S&D would have fewer incentives to compromise with the European People's Party (EPP), the largest group in the Parliament.
"The group would be more sharply critical towards [Commission President] von der Leyen's agenda," one EU official said, adding that centre-left lawmakers would face fewer political constraints with Sánchez in opposition. Another official noted that the Madrid-Brussels link had become unusually close, with Sánchez at times setting the tone for the entire S&D group.
Sánchez has been a key pillar of the current pro-European majority in the European Parliament, which relies on the EPP, the centrist Renew Europe and the S&D. The Greens/EFA also broadly support the Commission, though they are not part of the formal coalition. This centrist bloc has historically underpinned European integration, but its cohesion is already showing cracks, with the EPP occasionally voting with right-wing lawmakers on issues like deforestation, corporate sustainability and migration.
"Sánchez was a huge stabilising factor. He was the main guarantor of von der Leyen, always pushing to find a compromise with the European People's Party," an EU lawmaker told Euronews, asking not to be named.
Institutional tests ahead
The first test could come with the mid-term reshuffle of the European Parliament's presidency. Under an informal agreement among centrist groups, the S&D is due to hold the presidency, but the EPP is backing a third mandate for Roberta Metsola (Malta/EPP), who is popular among MEPs. Without Sánchez in government, the S&D might struggle to resist a symbolic challenge from Katarina Barley (Germany/S&D).
More broadly, a shift in Madrid could embolden the EPP to claim the European Council presidency, currently held by António Costa, a socialist and close ally of Sánchez. "If Spain's Prime Minister were to come from the centre-right PP (EPP) in the future, S&D's influence would be diminished in the European Council in a way that we haven't seen since at least the early 1990s," said Tobias Gerhard Schminke, founder of the election observatory Europe Elects.
The campaign itself is unlikely to disrupt European politics, beyond some symbolic votes in the European Parliament. One immediate test is the re-election of Iratxe García Pérez (Spain/S&D) as head of the S&D group, the Parliament's second-largest political group. No challenger has emerged, though the nomination deadline is 13 October.
If Sánchez loses, Denmark's Mette Frederiksen would become the senior progressive leader in the EU. Her migration policy, which is closer to the right, has already put her at odds with Sánchez and caused tensions within the S&D. Sánchez has also been a prominent dissenting voice on issues including migration, Israel, US President Donald Trump, defence spending and the green agenda.
Critics say von der Leyen's majority is already fragile, with the EPP regularly forming alternative majorities with right-wing lawmakers. Some socialists fear that bringing down von der Leyen could produce an outcome even less favourable to the centre-left, as more EU member states shift to the right. The euro has already slid to a 17-month low amid French debt worries and the Spanish election, underscoring the market's sensitivity to political instability.
For now, Sánchez's supporters insist it is too early to write him off. He defied expectations after the 2023 election, remaining in power with the backing of Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties. But the political landscape has shifted, and the housing crisis has mobilised hundreds of thousands of protesters in Madrid and beyond. The outcome of the 29 November vote will not only decide Spain's future but also shape the direction of European politics for years to come.
