Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) declared on Monday that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will not survive the year, following a disastrous weekend for his centre-right CDU in two state elections. The AfD's top candidate in the Baltic coastal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Leif-Erik Holm, told reporters: "The chancellor certainly won't make it to the end of the year. I think the twilight of the chancellor's era has begun."
The CDU's collapse in the northeastern state was historic: it secured just 4.9% of the vote, falling below the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament in Schwerin. That is the party's worst result in any state election since its founding in 1945. In Berlin, the CDU was also soundly beaten by the far-left Die Linke, adding to a string of regional defeats that have left Merz's authority in tatters.
Just 16 months into his chancellorship, Merz's approval ratings have plummeted to around 10%, and the AfD now leads national polls. The pressure has become so intense that on Sunday evening, minutes after the first exit polls were released, the 70-year-old chancellor took the unusual step of addressing the nation on television. He admitted that the CDU had suffered a "disaster" in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but insisted he would stay the course.
Merz fights for survival
"Trust in our country's institutions is waning," Merz said, "and is being actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right." He added: "What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country."
Political analysts saw the address as a pre-emptive strike against mounting speculation that his own party might try to replace him. Oliver Lembcke, a political scientist at Ruhr University Bochum, told AFP: "His extremely early move shows that Merz is staking a claim to define the narrative. This is leadership from a defensive position and an attempt to prevent a personnel debate with an uncertain outcome from gathering steam."
Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING bank, echoed that view: "Read the appearance for what it was, an attempt to choke off the speculation about his possible resignation that has been building in recent weeks."
Merz has cleared his calendar for the coming days, skipping a trip to New York for the UN General Assembly to manage the fallout. Names of potential successors have been floated in the German press, including Hendrik Wüst, the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Söder, the Bavarian state premier and leader of the CSU, the CDU's Bavarian sister party. So far, no contender has openly challenged Merz, perhaps fearing that a disloyal move could backfire, or daunted by the scale of the crisis.
The latest defeats come just two weeks after the AfD, which is pro-Russian and sympathetic to Donald Trump, also defeated the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt. The string of election debacles comes as Merz has struggled to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his coalition partners in the SPD. The strains in the coalition have become increasingly visible as voters shift to the far right.
Merz received some backing from CDU powerbrokers last week when eight state premiers issued a joint statement declaring that Germany needs "stability now more than ever" rather than "discussions about personnel." But the heavy losses in the state elections have intensified the pressure, and the state votes have tested his leadership as both the far right and far left gain ground.
When Merz took office in May last year, he promised to reboot a flagging economy, rebuild the military to deter Russia, and reduce irregular immigration to lure voters away from the AfD. But his blunt and sometimes abrasive style has not helped his popularity. The AfD's success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it came first with around 28% of the vote, means the centre-left SPD may still form a government there with left-wing allies, but the symbolic blow to the CDU is severe.
As the week unfolds, Merz faces a tough battle to keep his job. The appointment of Germany's top general to lead NATO's Military Committee offers a rare piece of good news for the government, but it is unlikely to distract from the political crisis at home. For now, the chancellor's fate hangs in the balance, and the clock is ticking.
