Ten years have passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, a decision that reshaped British politics, strained relations across the continent, and triggered a cascade of economic and social consequences. As the anniversary approaches, the question of whether the UK could ever rejoin the bloc lingers in political discourse, though the path remains fraught with obstacles.
The referendum of 23 June 2016 saw 51.9% of British voters opt for Brexit, setting in motion a process that culminated in the UK's formal departure on 31 January 2020. Since then, the relationship between London and Brussels has been defined by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, a deal that left many in both camps dissatisfied. The divorce still defines Britain's politics and economy, with persistent debates over sovereignty, trade friction, and regulatory divergence.
The Political Landscape a Decade On
In Westminster, the Conservative Party, which championed Brexit, has seen its electoral fortunes wane. The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier this year, as reported in our coverage of Europe's shifting landscape, underscored the volatility of British politics. Labour, under new leadership, has adopted a cautious stance on Europe, prioritising improved relations without reopening the membership question. The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party remain the most vocal advocates for rejoining, but they lack the parliamentary strength to force the issue.
Public opinion, however, has shifted. Polls consistently show a majority of Britons now believe leaving the EU was a mistake, with younger voters overwhelmingly pro-European. A decade after Brexit, British public opinion has shifted back toward the EU, yet this sentiment has not translated into political momentum. The Conservative Party's internal divisions and the Labour leadership's fear of alienating Leave voters have kept rejoining off the mainstream agenda.
Economic and Legal Hurdles
Rejoining the EU would require the UK to meet the Copenhagen criteria—stable institutions, a functioning market economy, and alignment with EU law—as well as adopt the euro and the Schengen Area rules, opt-outs that were negotiated during the UK's original membership. The economic cost of leaving has been well documented: the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a 4% reduction in GDP compared with remaining. Britain's economic reckoning and political turmoil have made rejoining more appealing to some, but the transition would be disruptive.
Brussels, meanwhile, has moved on. The EU has deepened integration in areas such as defence, digital regulation, and climate policy, often without British input. Any application for membership would require unanimous approval from all 27 member states, a high bar given lingering resentment over the UK's departure and its subsequent demands for special treatment. Countries like France and the Netherlands, which have their own Eurosceptic movements, might veto a British bid to avoid encouraging similar exits.
Geopolitical Shifts and the European Context
The war in Ukraine has reframed European security, pushing the UK and EU closer together on defence and sanctions. Yet this cooperation has not translated into institutional rapprochement. The EU's enlargement agenda is currently focused on the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova, not on readmitting a former member. EU support has risen across Europe a decade after the Brexit vote, according to Pew Research, but this does not necessarily extend to welcoming the UK back.
For the UK, the debate over rejoining is as much about identity as policy. The Brexit vote was driven by concerns over sovereignty, immigration, and a perceived loss of control. Those sentiments have not disappeared, even as the economic costs have become clearer. A second referendum on membership would risk reopening the deep social divisions that characterised the 2016 campaign.
In Brussels, officials are pragmatic. They note that the UK could rejoin the European Economic Area or the Customs Union without full membership, a step that would ease trade friction but still require accepting EU rules without a seat at the table. Such a move might be politically more palatable than full membership, but it would fall short of the ambitions of pro-European campaigners.
As the tenth anniversary of the referendum approaches, the question of rejoining remains a theoretical one. The political, economic, and legal barriers are formidable, and neither the UK nor the EU appears ready to reopen the membership file. Yet the shifting public mood and the evolving geopolitical landscape mean that the debate is unlikely to disappear. For now, the UK and the EU must navigate a relationship that is neither fully inside nor fully out, a limbo that both sides find uncomfortable but are unwilling to change.
