The immediate diplomatic storm over the Ceuta border surge may have cooled, but the episode has reignited a deeper question in Brussels: is Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, drifting into a role akin to Europe's "red Orbán" — a left-wing leader increasingly at odds with the EU mainstream?
Danish MEP Henrik Dahl, a member of the European People's Party, coined the label, though even he acknowledges its limits. "Like Orbán, he is seen as a spoiler," Dahl told Euronews. "Sánchez is not on the same page as almost everybody else, and he's seen as free-riding and really negligent on security issues."
Unlike Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly used vetoes to block EU sanctions on Russia, financial aid to Ukraine, and other measures, Sánchez has not systematically obstructed European legislation. Yet his positions on several key fronts have set Madrid apart from the other 26 EU capitals.
Divergences on China, defence, and migration
One of the most striking gaps is China. Spain has called on Brussels to "reconsider" tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and King Felipe VI's visit to Beijing in November — the first by a Spanish monarch in 18 years — raised eyebrows in EU circles. "He is on a totally different page than almost everybody else with China," Dahl said. "He is seen as someone who simply does not understand that China is weaponising globalisation."
On defence, Spain stands alone among NATO allies in refusing to commit to the alliance's new 5% of GDP spending target. According to NATO data, Spain is expected to spend around 2% of its GDP on defence this year, a figure that critics view as unconstructive, especially as other European nations ramp up military budgets in response to Russia's war in Ukraine.
But the most explosive divergence is migration. The Ceuta crisis, which saw roughly 72,000 people cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave in late July, crystallised concerns that Spain's policies are pulling it away from its neighbours. Madrid's recent migrant regularisation programme has been blamed by some for encouraging the surge, a claim the government denies.
On Saturday, 22 EU heads of state sent a joint letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, expressing "serious concern" over the incident and Sánchez's migration policies. The letter argued that a Spanish Supreme Court ruling had been "used to trigger this attack and abuse our migration and asylum system," and called for coordinated action to deter illegal migration and address "pull factors" such as mass regularisation.
As Dahl noted, the fact that 22 of 27 EU leaders signed the letter means this is not a fringe view but the majority position. One EU diplomat told Euronews that much of the anger stems from domestic political pressures, with at least half a dozen of the signatories facing national elections in 2027.
Isolation or necessary counterweight?
Spanish economist Alicia García-Herrero, who advises the government in Madrid, acknowledged the reality of Sánchez's isolation. "The fact that he is isolated is a reality," she said. "I believe that Sánchez has felt isolated for a long time." She noted that the speed with which the letter was drafted and signed suggests long-simmering frustrations. "This just hit him on the face, this letter."
García-Herrero expects further disunity at the October European Council summit, where migration will dominate. But she also suggested that the pressure could galvanise Sánchez: "If he feels isolated, he may feel like he has nothing to lose."
Others reject the narrative of Spanish isolation entirely. Javi López, a Spanish MEP from the Socialists and Democrats group and Vice President of the European Parliament, called the "red Orbán" comparison "insane." He argued that Spain plays a vital role in maintaining the EU's political balance. "We are an important part to ensure and guarantee the political equilibrium of Brussels," he said. "Without us, it would mean a collapse of the European project."
The Ceuta crisis has also raised security concerns, with Spanish media reporting that suspected jihadists may have been among the arrivals. The reported presence of suspected jihadists has added a layer of urgency to the debate. Meanwhile, Morocco has said it warned Spain before the surge, and the role of social media rumours in triggering the mass movement is under scrutiny.
As the EU seeks a common response, the EU has backed Spain while ministers search for a unified approach. But the underlying tensions remain unresolved, and Sánchez's standing in Europe is likely to be tested again at the October summit.
