Europe must be ready to sharply increase production of jet fuel and diesel to keep its armed forces operational in a major conflict, EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned on Wednesday. Speaking after the European Commission's first roundtable on refining capacity, Kubilius stressed that while current supplies are adequate for peacetime, the picture would change quickly if war broke out.
According to industry figures, military fuel consumption in peacetime accounts for roughly 8% of Europe's total refining capacity. But that share could balloon in a crisis. “If the crisis is coming, that could be much bigger,” Kubilius said. He pointed to NATO's force model, which envisions moving and sustaining 100,000 troops within the first ten days of a conflict—an operation that would consume enormous quantities of fuel.
The commissioner declined to specify how long Europe could hold out with its existing fuel stocks, saying those numbers are classified. His comments came as European refineries have been shutting down or scaling back for years, squeezed by aging plants, shifting demand, and tighter environmental rules.
Refining capacity under pressure
The roundtable, convened by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, brought together NATO officials and industry representatives to address the growing gap between Europe's fuel needs and its domestic production capacity. Global disruptions—including the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have made it harder and costlier for Europe to secure reliable energy imports.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen acknowledged the tension between decarbonisation goals and immediate security needs. The EU has a legally binding target to cut carbon emissions by 90% by 2040, but Jørgensen said that “now” what is needed is ample supply of conventional fuels. “Diesel and jet fuels are essential for mobility, the broader economy, and our defence,” he said. “We need to create an environment that supports sufficient domestic fuel production in Europe—as well as long-term viability of European refining—as the EU decarbonises.”
The most critical fuels for Europe's militaries are jet fuel for aviation forces and diesel for backup power generation at bases. A NATO spokesperson told Euronews that it is “vital” that Europe's fuel production capacity can support both civil and military demands in times of crisis, and that allies have committed to maintaining access to these supplies.
In July, NATO members approved a €27 billion programme to enhance the alliance's fuel supply chain capability. That plan, along with the EU's new focus on refining, reflects a broader push to shore up Europe's defence readiness amid heightened threats from Russia and instability in the Middle East.
Kubilius's warning echoes concerns raised by other European leaders about the continent's military preparedness. Poland and the UK recently signed a defence pact to counter Russian aggression, and the EU is already moving to revive refining capacity to address the diesel crunch. The challenge is to balance these immediate needs with long-term climate goals, a tension that EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra has also highlighted in his calls for adaptation to a warmer continent.
Industry experts note that building new refineries or expanding existing ones takes years and significant investment, which may not be forthcoming if demand for fossil fuels is expected to decline in the long run. However, the security imperative is now forcing a rethink. As Kubilius put it, Europe must be prepared to “surge” production when needed, even if that means keeping some capacity idle in peacetime.
The Commission's dialogue is expected to continue, with further meetings planned to explore policy options, including possible incentives for refiners to maintain strategic reserves and invest in flexible production capabilities. For now, the message from Brussels is clear: Europe's defence cannot be taken for granted, and neither can its fuel supply.
