Global alcohol consumption is entering a prolonged downturn, with volumes expected to decline until 2031 before stabilizing, according to a new 10-year forecast from the IWSR, a market research firm covering 160 countries. The report, the first of its kind from the firm, projects that total alcohol volumes will fall by 2% from 2024 to 2025 and continue dropping in subsequent years, driven by shifting consumer habits and tighter household budgets in traditional drinking markets.
By 2035, overall consumption is expected to remain 1% below 2025 levels, even as the global population of legal drinking-age consumers grows by 9%. Annual per-capita consumption of pure alcohol is forecast to decline by roughly half a liter—equivalent to about two bottles of spirits per year—over the decade.
Europe's Traditional Markets Lead the Decline
The downturn is particularly pronounced in some of the world's largest alcohol markets, with European countries at the forefront. Germany is projected to see a 14% drop in consumption by 2035, while the United Kingdom is forecast to decline by 13%. These reductions reflect a broader trend across the continent, where consumers are increasingly prioritizing health and wellness, and where economic pressures—such as those highlighted in recent IMF calls for fiscal tightening in the eurozone—are squeezing disposable incomes.
Outside Europe, the United States and China are each expected to record nearly 20% declines in consumption volumes by 2035. Japan is forecast to see a 15% fall. The IWSR attributes these shifts to a combination of demographic changes, rising health awareness, and a growing preference for non-alcoholic alternatives.
Emerging Markets Buck the Trend
In contrast, several emerging markets are poised for robust growth. India is projected to become a major driver of global alcohol demand, with annual servings consumed increasing by 38% between 2025 and 2035. Other notable gainers include Mexico (13%), Vietnam (15%), and Colombia (26%). This divergence underscores a fundamental reshaping of the global drinks landscape, as producers pivot toward younger, expanding populations in Asia and Latin America.
“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today,” said Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, in a press release. The shift is not uniform across categories: global wine consumption is forecast to fall by 14% over the decade, spirits by 2%, and beer by around 1%. However, ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages—such as premixed cocktails—are expected to surge by 17% globally.
“Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon,” noted Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting. This growth reflects a broader consumer pivot toward convenience and lower-alcohol options, a trend that is particularly visible in European cities where nightlife culture is evolving.
The findings carry implications for European policymakers and businesses alike. As alcohol consumption declines, governments may face reduced tax revenues from the sector, while producers will need to adapt to shifting demand. The rise of RTDs and non-alcoholic beverages also aligns with broader health and sustainability goals, such as those supported by initiatives like the Global Environment Facility's recent €3.4 billion pledge for climate and biodiversity.
For European consumers, the trend signals a gradual but meaningful change in drinking habits, one that is likely to reshape everything from pub culture in London to wine consumption in Bordeaux. The IWSR forecast suggests that by 2035, the continent's relationship with alcohol will look markedly different from today.
