Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said on Thursday that he does not foresee jet fuel shortages in Europe this winter or into the summer of 2027, even as the conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains. Speaking at a press conference organised by Airlines for Europe (A4E) in Brussels, O'Leary sought to reassure the industry while acknowledging that the cost of fuel remains a pressing concern.
“There is no question, I think, over availability of jet fuel in Europe this winter, or frankly into next summer either, unless there's some unforeseen event,” O'Leary said. His comments come amid heightened anxiety over energy markets, but he stressed that the immediate risk of shortages appears limited.
Supply outlook: imports and refinery output
Earlier reporting by Euronews Business indicated that lower seasonal demand from November, combined with increased imports from Asia, would help keep Europe supplied in the coming months. According to data from Kpler, nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asia were scheduled to arrive during that period. These shipments are expected to prevent acute shortages, but they are unlikely to bring significant price relief.
George Shaw, senior insight analyst for distillate markets at Kpler, noted that jet fuel prices are closely tied to the diesel market, which is experiencing record highs and tightening supply. “Jet fuel will likely be subject to higher prices, especially as it is deeply linked to the diesel market, which is becoming even tighter and experiencing record prices recently,” he said in late September.
The European Commission also stated on 8 September that increased EU refinery output and alternative imports were meeting European demand for jet fuel, although further disruption in the Middle East could tighten supplies. The situation remains fluid, and any escalation could change the outlook quickly.
Strategic reserves and G7 action
Separately, the G7 agreed last Friday to accelerate the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease pressure on energy markets. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency clarified that these barrels were part of the emergency stock release agreed in March. Members supported accelerating the remaining releases and prioritising diesel due to tight supplies, though the announcement did not specify a release of jet fuel.
While these measures may help stabilise markets, they do not directly address the specific dynamics of jet fuel pricing, which have diverged sharply from crude oil costs.
Jet fuel prices double
Since the outbreak of the war, jet fuel prices have risen faster than crude prices, as attacks on refineries have disrupted production and widened the gap between the cost of crude and the finished fuel. According to the International Air Transport Association’s latest fuel price monitor, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) recorded the highest average jet fuel price of any region.
Prices averaged $195.95 a barrel in the week ending 2 October, more than double their level a year earlier. Although they fell 1% that week, the global jet fuel premium over crude remained roughly three times its year-earlier level. O'Leary highlighted the historical norm: “Historically, jet fuel was about somewhere between 10 per cent and 15 per cent more expensive than Brent crude. It's currently running at about 50 per cent more expensive.”
He expects that premium to persist for another 12 to 18 months, citing attacks on Russian and Middle Eastern refineries, along with constraints on tanker availability and refining capacity. These factors are likely to keep fuel costs elevated for airlines and passengers alike.
The aviation sector has been grappling with rising operational costs, and fuel remains one of the largest expenses for carriers. While the absence of shortages is welcome news, the sustained high prices will continue to pressure profit margins and potentially affect ticket prices. For travellers, this means that the era of cheap flights may be further delayed, as airlines pass on higher fuel costs.
As Europe heads into the winter season, the focus will remain on the stability of supply chains and the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East. The coming months will test the resilience of the continent's fuel logistics, but for now, the industry's leaders are cautiously optimistic.
