Climate scientists are raising alarms about the possibility of a record-breaking El Niño event later this year, which could unleash a cascade of extreme weather across Europe and the globe. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that an El Niño is likely to develop from mid-2023, with some models suggesting it could be among the strongest on record.
Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa, Florida, warned: “I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before.” His concern echoes that of many experts who see the combination of a powerful El Niño and ongoing climate change as a dangerous mix.
What Is El Niño and Why Does It Matter for Europe?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This warming shifts global weather patterns, often leading to hotter and drier conditions in some regions and wetter, stormier weather in others. Its counterpart, La Niña, brings cooler-than-average Pacific waters.
For Europe, a strong El Niño typically means increased likelihood of heatwaves in southern and central parts of the continent, as well as altered rainfall patterns that can exacerbate droughts in the Mediterranean and bring heavier precipitation to northern areas. The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update shows sea-surface temperatures rising rapidly, with high confidence in the onset of El Niño and further intensification in the months ahead, according to Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of climate prediction at WMO.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, noted that the volume and intensity of subsurface warm water anomalies—key drivers of El Niño—are among the largest seen in the historical record. “One of the key building blocks to make it fully materialise is, in fact, occurring,” Swain said. “We still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. It’s not guaranteed it’ll be a super El Niño. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.”
The term “super El Niño” is not officially used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), but it is commonly applied to the most extreme events. If such an event materialises, the excess heat released from the Pacific could supercharge the climate system, leading to stronger heatwaves, worsening drought in some areas, and more intense floods due to increased moisture in the air.
For Europe, the implications are significant. Southern Europe, including Spain, Italy, and Greece, could face more severe heatwaves and drought conditions. Hungary's drought deepens as the Great Plain turns dusty and rivers dry up, a trend that could be exacerbated by a super El Niño. Meanwhile, northern Europe might experience heavier rainfall and flooding, as seen in past events.
Berardelli also noted that El Niño subdues Atlantic hurricane activity, which could mean a quieter storm season for the Caribbean but does not directly reduce risks for Europe. However, the indirect effects on global weather patterns can still influence European climate.
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, cautioned that while El Niño boosts global temperatures for a year or two, it is essentially a “zero-sum game” that oscillates back toward La Niña. The real concern, he said, is the longer-term warming trend driven by fossil fuel burning. “All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective,” Swain added.
As Europe braces for potential extremes, the need for adaptation measures becomes more urgent. Spain's climate shelters: a model for Europe as heat deaths mount offers one example of how cities can prepare. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the predicted super El Niño materialises and how severely it will affect the continent.
