Fighting has reignited in northern Ethiopia, with Tigrayan rebels seizing the airport in the regional capital Mekelle and clashing with federal forces in the neighbouring Afar region. The escalation marks a decisive breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the devastating 2020-2022 war, raising fears of a return to full-scale conflict.
Clashes erupted overnight in Abala and Erebti, two towns in Afar along the mountainous border with Tigray. An NGO source in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the fighting involved Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces and federal troops. "We are expecting it to expand. We just sent a truck with food to help the people displaced," the source added. A second humanitarian source and a foreign security source based in Ethiopia confirmed the clashes.
Abala sits in the highlands marking the boundary with Tigray, while Erebti lies roughly 100 kilometres deeper into Afar. A former senior TPLF official claimed the rebels now control Berhale, Erebti, Abala, Megale, Dalul and Konoba in Afar, and that federal forces are "fast-retreating."
Airport seized, flights suspended
Local and security sources said Tigrayan forces had taken control of Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle. An employee at the airport described the moment the takeover became known: "While we were on our way to the airport for work, our supervisor called the driver and told him that the airport had been taken over by Tigray forces. Since there were no flights, he told us to return home." A foreign security source confirmed the information. A small contingent of federal police guards the airport, but their status was unclear.
Ethiopian Airlines announced it had suspended flights to three airports in Tigray — Mekelle, Axum and Shire — "due to the current situation." The suspension effectively cuts off the region from the rest of the country, a move reminiscent of the early days of the last war.
The 2020-2022 conflict between the TPLF and the federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, claimed an estimated 600,000 lives, according to the African Union. Sporadic clashes in recent months had already raised alarms, but Wednesday's events signal a more serious deterioration.
Abiy under pressure from multiple fronts
Ethiopia is grappling with several insurgencies, including in its most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara. On Sunday, the TPLF announced it had joined a seven-group military alliance called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, aiming to overthrow Abiy's government and install a transitional administration. The alliance includes the Amhara nationalist Fano militias — who fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF in the last war — and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with four other groups from three regions. Together, they represent half of Ethiopia's twelve regional states.
The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until Abiy rose to power in 2018, a shift that eventually triggered the 2020 war. The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, brought an uneasy calm, but it began to fray in late 2025 when clashes resumed. Since then, the federal government has launched drone strikes in Tigray and massed troops along the regional border. Rights groups have accused the TPLF of forced recruitment this year as it prepares for renewed fighting.
The region remains scarred by the previous war, with around one million people still displaced and many provisions of the peace deal unfulfilled. Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, partly for brokering a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea, but his government now faces a multi-front challenge.
Military balance and regional involvement
The federal government holds a significant military advantage, having ramped up production of military drones since the last war. However, the Tigray Defence Forces retain a substantial arsenal inherited from their years at the helm of Ethiopia's military before 2018, including tanks, artillery, long-range guided rockets and ballistic missiles, as documented by open-source military analysts during the 2020-2022 conflict.
Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos said in June that TPLF hardliners had been "actively accumulating and acquiring new arms" in violation of the Pretoria Agreement. Neighbouring countries have also been implicated. The ACLED conflict monitoring group assessed earlier this year that Eritrean forces had moved troops toward western Tigray in coordination with the TDF, and that Eritrea was providing weapons and hosting Tigrayan fighters. Ethiopia's government formally accused Sudan's armed forces in May of providing "arms and financial support" to TPLF-linked forces, describing Sudan as "a hub of anti-Ethiopian forces." Sudan denied the allegation.
Egypt, locked in a long-running dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile, is assessed by analysts at the Soufan Center as providing diplomatic cover and logistical support to Ethiopian opposition factions, although no direct weapons transfers to the TPLF have been documented.
The renewed fighting threatens to destabilise the wider Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with drought, displacement and political volatility. For Europe, which has significant diplomatic and humanitarian interests in Ethiopia — including hosting a large Ethiopian diaspora and funding aid programmes — the collapse of the peace process could have far-reaching consequences. The European Union has repeatedly called for restraint and dialogue, but with both sides seemingly committed to a military solution, the prospects for peace look increasingly bleak.
