European Union member states are paying dramatically more for petroleum imports this year, a direct consequence of heightened conflict in the Middle East. The bloc's monthly oil bill has surged by nearly €10 billion compared with 2025, even though the amount of crude and refined products entering the EU has barely moved.
New data from Eurostat, analysed by Euronews Business, shows that in the second quarter of 2026 the EU spent an average of €27.6 billion per month on petroleum oil imports. That is a 55.8% jump from the €17.7 billion monthly average recorded in 2025. Import volumes, however, rose only 1.2%, from 36.3 million tonnes to 36.7 million tonnes per month. The cost per tonne climbed from €487 to €750, returning to levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Why the bill is soaring
The principal driver is the sharp rise in global crude prices. Professor Xiaoyi Mu from the University of Dundee told Euronews Business that the monthly average Brent price in the second quarter of 2026 was 49.5% higher than the 2025 average, an increase of $34 per barrel. He pointed to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and oil products – about 20% of global daily consumption – flowed in 2025. “When nearly 20% of world supply is cut, the price must rise to balance the market,” he said.
The per-tonne cost tells a stark story. In Q2 2026, the EU paid €750 for each tonne of imported petroleum oil, just €2 below the record set in Q2 2022. At the end of 2025, a tonne cost €435; by the second quarter of this year it had jumped to €750.
Szymon Kardas, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), emphasised that the war involving the US, Israel and Iran had disrupted production and supply routes, pushing prices higher. “In some weeks, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war levels, only to fall again,” he said. Such volatility hits the EU hard because the bloc is 90–95% dependent on oil imports from outside its borders – Eurostat put the figure at 96.6% in 2024.
Wolfgang Eichhammer, senior expert at the Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy (IEECP), agreed that Middle East tensions were the main factor, but he also noted strong global demand, with Europe competing for cargoes against buyers in Asia, particularly China.
Consumers feel the pinch
The impact is visible at petrol stations across the continent. In the first week of January 2026, diesel averaged €1.54 per litre in the EU. Prices rose sharply from March, passing €2 per litre later that month and reaching €2.24 at the end of September – above the 2022 peak of €2.03. On 19 October, diesel stood at €2.14, 38% higher than at the start of the year. Petrol followed a similar trajectory, climbing from €1.60 to €2.10 by late September, also surpassing its 2022 record, before easing slightly to €1.99. Filling a 50-litre diesel tank now costs about €107, up from €77 in January.
Professor Mu warned that higher fuel costs would ripple through the economy. “I would expect the prices of food, public transport and other everyday goods to increase as diesel is widely used in heavy transport and buses,” he said. Kardas added that the effect would vary by sector: “Transport, heating, agriculture, and energy-intensive manufacturing will feel an immediate squeeze, passing higher freight, utility, and fossil fuels costs on to end consumers, whereas service-based industries will remain largely insulated.”
No quick relief in sight
Experts do not expect the import bill to fall soon. Asked whether costs would remain high, Mu said: “Unfortunately yes, as we don’t see a practical way of ending the conflict.” He also noted that higher shipping and insurance costs may not yet be fully reflected in the second-quarter figures, potentially pushing up costs further in the third and fourth quarters. Kardas expects conflict-related costs to “persist in the coming months and may well continue into 2027”.
The surge in oil prices is also affecting broader energy imports. In Q2 2026, the EU spent €115.6 billion on all energy imports, up from €81.4 billion a year earlier. Petroleum oils accounted for €32.4 billion of the €34.2 billion increase – roughly 95%. Gas imports rose by €1.6 billion and coal by €0.4 billion, while LNG imports fell slightly.
For European households and businesses, the message is clear: the era of cheap fuel is over, at least for now. As tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating, the EU's oil bill is likely to remain elevated, with consequences for inflation, competitiveness and the cost of living across the bloc.
