Diesel prices in France have climbed to an unprecedented €2.41 per litre, according to an analysis by AFP, as fuel costs across the European Union continue to break records. The figure, calculated from prices displayed by more than 8,700 petrol stations on the French economy ministry's website, surpassed the previous record set just a day earlier.
The surge is not confined to France. Data from the European Commission shows that both petrol and diesel reached their highest ever EU-wide averages on 14 September, with petrol at €2.063 per litre and diesel at €2.159. These are the highest readings since the Commission began tracking prices in 2005. While petrol's previous peak was in 2022, diesel is now approaching levels last seen in April of this year.
Across the bloc, France remains one of the most expensive countries for fuel, but it is not alone. Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Finland all reported higher prices for both petrol and diesel in the same week. The weighted EU average for diesel stood at €2.29 on 14 September, a figure that masks significant national variations.
The immediate cause of the price spike is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted global oil supplies. The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began in February, has been compounded by renewed hostilities in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure. These factors have pushed international benchmark Brent crude above $100 a barrel, despite a slight easing over the past three days.
However, crude oil prices are only part of the story. European refining margins—the difference between the cost of crude and the wholesale value of refined products—remain exceptionally high. While petrol margins may have peaked in August, diesel margins are expected to continue rising into October, according to experts at the European Central Bank. Speaking to Euronews last Friday, they noted that futures data from LSEG point to a peak in diesel margins in October.
Social and political fallout
The rising cost of fuel is reigniting social tensions across the continent. In France, the government is particularly wary of a repeat of the gilets jaunes (yellow vest) protests that erupted in 2018 over fuel price hikes. The movement, which began as a reaction to a carbon tax on diesel, spiraled into a broader anti-government uprising that lasted for months.
Other European countries are also feeling the strain. In Germany, where diesel prices are among the highest in the EU, the government has faced pressure to provide relief to commuters and hauliers. The Netherlands and Denmark have seen similar calls for action, with some politicians advocating for temporary tax cuts or subsidies.
The situation has also prompted discussions at the EU level. EU finance ministers are weighing windfall taxes on energy firms as prices surge, a move that could help fund targeted support for vulnerable households and businesses. However, such measures remain contentious, with critics arguing that they could discourage investment in refining capacity.
Beyond the immediate price shock, there are longer-term concerns about the affordability of transport and its impact on the broader economy. Public transport costs have surged in half of Europe's capitals, adding to the financial burden on citizens. Meanwhile, European cities are stepping up their fight against air pollution, a challenge that becomes more complex when fuel prices drive up the cost of alternatives.
For now, the outlook remains uncertain. While crude prices have fallen slightly, the geopolitical situation is volatile, and refining margins are expected to stay high. As the ECB experts noted, diesel margins are projected to peak in October, suggesting that relief at the pump may be some time away. For European consumers, the era of cheap fuel appears to be over, at least for the foreseeable future.
