The fragile US-Iran ceasefire and ongoing negotiations came under severe strain on Sunday after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused Washington of violating the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The IRGC warned that any further violations would lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic processes and a 'crushing response' against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
The immediate trigger for the weekend's escalation was a drone attack on the M/T Kiku, a Panama-flagged crude oil tanker heading to Fujairah in the UAE, which the US attributed to Iran. In response, US Central Command struck ten Iranian military targets in and around the strait, including surveillance infrastructure, air defence sites, drone storage facilities, and minelaying capabilities. Tehran retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones targeting the US Fifth Fleet headquarters at Salman Port in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Bahrain's Interior Ministry reported damage to a residential building near Bahrain International Airport, though no fatalities were recorded.
Military Flights Signal Potential Escalation
On Sunday evening, Euronews journalists in Doha observed US Air Force Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft taking off from the Qatari capital. These aircraft joined a number of US military planes circling over the Gulf region near the Strait of Hormuz, as tracked by Flightradar24. Their flight pattern mirrored that of the US strikes on Saturday night, suggesting preparations for a new wave of attacks on Iranian military installations. The UKMTO has since raised its threat level in the strait from 'moderate' to 'substantial' following attacks on merchant vessels, advising mariners of mines and naval clearance operations.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stated on Sunday that Washington would not stand by while Iran attacks international shipping or US bases. In an interview with Fox News, Waltz said the US would 'continue to, militarily, if needed, take down their infrastructure' used to control the waterway illegally. He added that President Donald Trump would 'leave every option on the table' to ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, though he noted that talks were continuing and that Trump would 'always give diplomacy a chance.'
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi countered, stating that each time the enemy violates agreements, it will receive a more severe response, and accused Washington of being 'deceitful and unreliable.' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking in Baghdad, declared that the strait would remain under Iran's full oversight for the next 30 days, with Tehran having sole responsibility for administering the waterway under the framework deal. Iran's state television announced designated safe transit routes: inbound ships directed south of Hormuz Island and outbound vessels south of Larak Island.
Meanwhile, a statement attributed to Iran's Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei called for US and Israeli leaders to be tried for 'war crimes,' citing 'child killings and war crimes in Minab and Lamerd.' Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in strikes on Tehran on 28 February. He has since addressed the nation solely through written statements read on state-run television; his whereabouts and condition remain unknown.
The new wave of reciprocal strikes and Tehran's hardening stance on Hormuz are putting significant pressure on the ceasefire framework. Yet both sides appear to exercise restraint in the scale of their military engagement as negotiations continue. The situation has broader implications for European interests, given the strait's importance for global energy transit and the EU's ongoing diplomatic efforts in the region. The EU's recent release of a €3 billion loan to Ukraine underscores the bloc's focus on stability, while the earlier attack on a cargo ship highlights the direct risks to maritime trade.
